While 125 hasn’t been quite as crazy at it was last year, conference weekend flipped it on its head a bit and shook up the rankings going in NCAAs. Below is a full preview with predictions for how I see this bracket playing out in Philadelphia.

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2024 All-Americans

1st Place - Richard Figueroa of Arizona State

2nd Place - Drake Ayala of Iowa

3rd Place - Anthony Noto of Lock Haven

4th Place - Eric Barnett of Wisconsin

5th Place - Luke Stanich of Lehigh

6th Place - Caleb Smith of Nebraska

7th Place - Jore Volk of Wyoming

8th Place - Tanner Jordan of South Dakota State

2025 Top 8 Seeds

1. Luke Lilledahl, Penn State
2. Matt Ramos, Purdue
3. Eddie Ventresca, Virginia Tech
4. Vincent Robinson, NC State
5. Richard Figueroa, Arizona State
6. Jett Strickenberger, West Virginia
7. Troy Spratley, OK State
8. Sheldon Seymour, Lehigh

The Favorite

• #1 Luke Lilledahl

Luke Lilledahl is going to Philadelphia as the rightful #1 seed and on-paper favorite. He earned this by beating #29 Joey Cruz, #9 Caleb Smith, and #2 Matt Ramos en route to the Big Ten title last weekend. And he looked fantastic doing it. He beat Cruz and Ramos by major decision before beating Smith 4-3 without giving up a takedown.

Lilledahl has been solid all year. His two losses during the regular season came to #20 Brenden McCrone and #12 Peterson. However, he looked like a new wrestler at the Big Ten Championships. Lilledahl’s baseline defense was there all year, but he was also living up to his nickname ‘Lightening Luke’ by getting to his ankle picks and low singles as well in Evanston. With Penn State’s track record of having freshman peak at the right time, I feel confident that he’s going to perform well once again at the national tournament. That being said, after Braeden Davis received the #1 seed last year and then went 1-2, I'm sure Nittany Lion fans won't feel comfortable until they see it happen.

The Contenders

• #2 Matt Ramos
• #3 Eddie Ventresca
• #4 Vincent Robinson
• #5 Richard Figueroa
• #6 Jett Strickenberger
• #7 Troy Spratley

Before being defeated by Lilledahl in the Big Ten semis, Matt Ramos was undefeated and the clear #1 ranked wrestler in the country. He navigated a tough CKLV bracket in December with wins over #3 Eddie Ventresca, #7 Troy Spratley, and a medical forfeit win over #4 Vincent Robinson. 

Watch Matt Ramos' wins over Eddie Ventresca and Troy Spratley from CKLV below.

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Ventresca and Robinson are among the better rivalries in this weight class. But can you call it a rivalry if only one party has won? I still think so! Hokie fans might disagree, as Ventresca is 2-0 against Robinson, beating him 4-1 in both the dual and the ACC tournament. However, with Ventresca losing to Spratley, Ramos, and Spencer Moore this season, I have Robinson finishing higher in my bracket as those are Robinson’s only non medical forfeit losses this season and he beat Spratley 7-3 in the NC State - Oklahoma State dual.

Another fun interconference battle this season has been Richard Figueroa vs Jett Strickenberger. Figueroa beat Strickenberger 11-2 in the two’s last regular season match of the season, but then Strickenberger won Big 12s after Figueroa was upset by Tristan Daughtery in the first round. There was a lot of questions and concerns surrounding Figueroa heading into conferences as he injry defaulted out of the Daktronics earlier this year and then missed a bunch of time. However, the major decision win over Strickenberger in late February, who has been lights out at 125 this year, and pinning his way back for third at Big 12 leads me to believe the Daughtery match was a one-off performance. I’m not sure if he will repeat as national champion, but I expect Figueroa to perform well in Philadelphia. 

Seven-seeded Troy Spratly might be the least likely contender in this group to actually make it out of this tournament unscathed. He lost to Ramos, Robinson, and Strickenberger (twice) this year. However, he did beat Ventresca and Caleb Smith. He’s more than capable of picking these guys off, but I need to see a little more consistency out of him before I pick him to win five-straight matches at the national tournament.

Sleepers & Landmines

• Brendan McCrone, Ohio State
• Tristan Daughtery, NDSU

Brendan McCrone is hardly a dark horse. Wrestling for Ohio State and beating Luke Lilledahl this year has led to him being one of the most household 20 seeds in the brackets. With a draw like Mark Anthony-McGowan first round and Vincent Robinson second round, I’m not sure how long his front side run will be, but McCrone’s top game gives him an X factor that few posses at this weight and I could see him making a little run on the backside.

I don’t know what to make of Tristan Daughtery’s Big 12 performance. After going sub .500 during the regular season, he came out and beat returning Kysen Terukina in the first round, then national champion Figueroa in the second, and then held Spratley to a 2-0 match in the semis. Now, he cooled off on the backside losing to Antonio Lorenzo and Stevo Poulin, and I think that’s a more realistic expectation for Daughtery. However, if the day 1 Big 12 version of Daughtery shows up at NCAAs, he proved he can pull off some upsets despite having a brutal draw after rightfully receiving the 27 seed.

Early Round Matches To Watch

#14 Spencer Moore vs #19 Cooper Flynn

Cooper Flynn went 2-0 against Spencer Moore in his first three college seasons while at Virginia Tech. However since Flynn transferred to Minnesota this past offseason, Moore has been wrestling slightly better and pulled off some nice upsets. This is represented in their seeds. 

#14 Spencer Moore/#19 Cooper Flynn vs #3 Eddie Ventresca

The winner of the Flynn-Moore first round match will get Ventresca. The reason this is interesting is that Flynn and Ventresca were teammates at Virginia Tech for three years and Moore beat Ventresca this season 4-1. Given that Ventresca has had a much better season than Moore and was 5-0 against Flynn while they were both at Virginia Tech, I’m not necessarily putting him on upset watch, but I will be locked in to that match.

#23 Tanner Jordan vs #10 Stevo Poulin

Tanner Jordan is a returning All-American who received the 23 seed. Now with eight losses this season, this isn’t a bad seed, just something that shows this isn’t a typical first round match for a 10 seed like Poulin. The Northern Colorado junior is 2-0 against with a 9-2 decision and a major, so Poulin is the clear favorite, but watch out.

#7 Troy Spratley vs #10 Stevo Poulin/#23 Tanner Jordan

Similar to the match above, Spratley is a clear favorite over either Poulin or Jordan, but watch out. Spratley separated himself from Jordan a bit this season by beating him 10-0 after losing to him at NCAAs last season. Interestingly enough, Spratley and Poulin have never wrestled in their college careers.

#4 Richard Figueroa vs #12 Dean Peterson

How healthy is Dean Peterson? That is a huge question surrounding the 125 lb bracket in Philadelphia. Peterson was forced to medically forfeit out of the Big Ten tournament after suffering an injury while wrestling Caleb Smith in the semifinals. If Peterson is healthy, he’s dangerous.

Predictions

1. Luke Lilledahl, Penn State

2. Matt Ramos, Purdue

3. Richard Figueroa, Arizona State

4. Vincent Robinson, NC State

5. Jett Strickenberger, West Virginia

6. Troy Spratley, Oklahoma State

7. Eddie Ventresca, Virginia Tech

8. Caleb Smith, Nebraska

R12. Maximo Renteria

R12. Nicolar Rivera

R12. Marc-Anthony McGowan

R12. Sheldon Seymour

Lilledahl is just peaking at the right time. He looked so good at the Big Ten Championships. I think his biggest test will come in the semis to Richie Figueroa who, despite losing at the Big 12s, I expect to perform at the national tournament like he did last year. And I’m not predicting it, but I would be surprised to see Jett Strickenberger make a run to the finals. His ability to pin people is almost unmatched in this bracket.