The 2024-25 NCAA D1 wrestling season's penultimate week wraps up with a big-time Big Ten dual, which also happens to be the subject of this preview article!

Who: #1 Penn State vs #13 Illinois

When: Sunday, February 16, 2025 at 2:00 PM ET

Where: Huff Hall in Champaign, Illinois

Watch: Streaming on BTN+ (link)

Admission is free as wrestling is a 'non-ticketed' sport at Illinois.  

Team Records

Illini head coach Mike Poeta is 9-3 this season, with a 4-3 record in the brutal Big Ten. Illinois also participated in the Journeymen Collegiate Classic, which does not keep team scores. The only losses on the season for the Illini came at the hands of two top 5 foes, Iowa and Ohio State, plus a criteria nailbiter to #12 Rutgers in New Jersey. Illinois also notched lopsided second-semester wins over Purdue, Maryland and Northwestern.

Coach Cael Sanderson's Nittany Lions are 12-0 on the season, and they have yet to be threatened in a dual meet, their narrowest margin of victory being 22 points against Iowa at the end of January. The Nittany Lions also had nine champs at the Black Knight Invite. 

PSU has just one more dual on the docket after this weekend. The Nittany Lions have a Friday dual with Ohio State that precedes their dual with Illinois, and then a final home dual on Sunday, February 21 against the American Eagles. 

Projected Lineups

125: #8 Luke Lilledahl, Penn State vs Caelan Riley, Illinois

133: #7 Braeden Davis, Penn State vs #3 Lucas Byrd, Illinois

141: #3 Beau Bartlett, Penn State vs #16 Danny Pucino, Illinois

149: #2 Shayne Van Ness, Penn State vs #17 Kannon Webster, Illinois

157: #1 Tyler Kasak, Penn State vs #27 Jason Kraisser, Illinois

165: #1 Mitchell Mesenbrink, Penn State vs #16 Braeden Scoles, Illinois

174: #2 Levi Haines, Penn State vs #22 Dan Brauagel, Illinois

184: #1 Carter Starocci, Penn State vs #12 Edmond Ruth, Illinois

197: #2 Josh Barr, Penn State vs #13 Zac Braunagel, Illinois

285: #2 Greg Kerkvliet, Penn State vs #10 Luke Luffman, Illinois

Braeden Davis has not wrestled the last three duals for Penn State before the weekend. If he doesn't go against Illinois, expect Kyison Garcia to fill in. Tyler Kasak also had to injury default out of his last match against Ethen Miller of Maryland. Either David Evans or Connor Pierce could bump up to 149 to handle 157 for the time being. 

Illinois has had a consistent lineup all year long and remained injury-free except at 125, where Iowa State transfer Ramazanov Attasauov was only able to wrestle one match this season, on November 2, which led to redshirt sophomore Caelan Riley manning the lead-off spot since then. 

Key Matchups

A lineup as fearsome as the Nittany Lions' is going to cause problems for every program. On paper, the Illini are only favored at 133. If it's Garcia and not Davis, then Bryd's chances of winning by bonus increase dramatically. 

Watch Lucas Byrd defeat Nasir Bailey at the 2024 NWCA All-Star Classic: 

Unlock this video, live events, and more with a subscription!

Sign Up

Already a subscriber? Log In

If Kasak doesn't start, things get more interesting at 157, where Kraisser has proven himself to be a wily pinner. Whether or not he'll get the ref to slap the mat remains to be seen, but he should keep things interesting for the duration of his bout regardless. 

I'm excited to see how redshirt freshman Kannon Webster does against Shayne Van Ness. Webster hit a rough patch where he lost three duals in a row in January, but they were all to tough competitors and his career track record, as well as a 1-0 loss to #3 Kyle Parco, suggests he could at least keep things close, as long as he can handle the maniac pace of SVN. 

Illinois' final three wrestlers are all All-American contenders, unfortunately, they're matched up against Penn State's title contenders, and the odds heavily favor Penn State in all three bouts. 184, 197, and 285 should still be tough tests for the Nittany Lions and quality matchups for us fans to watch. 

Watch Carter Starocci defeat 2024 NCAA champ Parker Keckeisen at the ASC:

Unlock this video, live events, and more with a subscription!

Sign Up

Already a subscriber? Log In

Predictions

Even with two PSU starters out of the lineup, there are not a lot of opportunities for the Illini to pick up team points. I'll assume Coach Sanderson doesn't want to take any chances this close to the postseason and we don't see Davis nor Kasak, although I have no inside knowledge on their situations. 

I'll predict a major for Byrd and a decision for Kraisser, though more team points from either wrestler would not shock me. I think we'll see eight other wins for Penn State, most of them by bonus. How exactly it all shakes out is a guessing game but I'll say some combination of three majors, two techs and a pin, for a final score of 34-7. 

That's likely on the conservative side of the bonus point total. If you see an over/under betting line for this dual and it's 41 total team points or less (which you won't, but for the sake of this point I'm making just imagine one) bet the over. 

What I am more certain of, however, is that we'll all get to enjoy this dual Sunday afternoon!