Iowa vs Penn State Wrestling Predictions, Preview and complete breakdown
Iowa vs Penn State Wrestling Predictions, Preview and complete breakdown
A breakdown with predictions for Friday night's premiere college wrestling dual meet between the Iowa Hawkeyes and Penn State Nittany Lions.
It doesn’t get any bigger and better than Penn State and Iowa. The dual is back in State College for the first time since 2018 where Penn State won 28-13. Things get started Friday at 8:30 PM Eastern on the Big Ten Network. If you’re looking for a fun and casual second-screen viewing experience give the watch party a try!
While Penn State is ranked #1 and a heavy favorite to win the NCAA championship, duals oftentimes lead to a higher variance in results. In fact in 2011 and 2013, while Penn State won NCAAs, Iowa won the dual.
Iowa vs Penn State Projected Lineups
125: #1 Spencer Lee, Iowa vs Gary Steen, Penn State
133: #12 Brody Teske, Iowa vs #1 Roman Bravo-Young, Penn State
141: #2 Real Woods, Iowa vs #3 Beau Bartlett, Penn State
149: #10 Max Murin, Iowa vs #12 Shayne Van Ness, Penn State
157: #14 Cobe Siebrecht, Iowa vs #12 Levi Haines / Terrell Barraclough, Penn State
165: #11 Patrick Kennedy, Iowa vs #5 Alex Facundo, Penn State
174: #17 Nelson Brands, Iowa vs #1 Carter Starocci, Penn State
184: #10 Abe Assad, Iowa vs #1 Aaron Brooks, Penn State
197: #10 Jacob Warner, Iowa vs #2 Max Dean, Penn State
285: #3 Anthony Cassioppi, Iowa vs #2 Greg Kerkvliet, Penn State
125: #1 Spencer Lee, Iowa vs Gary Steen, Penn State
There’s been a lot of talk this week about Spencer Lee moving up to wrestle Roman Bravo-Young. I hate to burst everyone’s bubble, but there is 0% chance of that happening. There is, however, a darn near 100% chance he will wrestle 125 and beat Gary Steen by bonus points. No disrespect to Steen, but Spencer has been on a heater lately. He’s currently on a six match pin streak, the largest of his career. It looks as if no one will be able to escape his rath this season.
Prediction: Lee by fall
Team score prediction: Iowa 6, Penn State 0
133: #12 Brody Teske, Iowa vs #1 Roman Bravo-Young, Penn State
There’s some familiarity here as Brody Teske spent the first two years of his college career at Penn State. These two were teammates, training partners, and friends.
They still get together and train in the offseason.
With that being said, Roman Bravo-Young is still a heavy favorite. Prior to his 4-2 match with Dylan Ragusin last Friday, RBY had a 100% bonus rate on the season. However, he rebounded by pinning #17 Rayvon Foley on Sunday.
While the two’s history could keep this one close, I still see RBY winning handily.
Prediction: Bravo-Young by decision
Team score prediction: Iowa 6, Penn State 3
141: #2 Real Woods, Iowa vs #3 Beau Bartlett, Penn State
Our first toss-up dual of the match. This is where we find out exactly where Beau Bartlett is on the 141 pecking order. Currently 14-0, Bartlett has obtained his #3 ranking this year by not losing. However, he has yet to get a signature win this season. Real Woods cemented himself as a title contender this year at 141 lbs with his win over Brock Hardy last week.
Bartlett has been putting up more points on the board this season down at 141, however, Woods can be very hard to takedown. If there’s any differentiating factor between these two, it’s Woods’s top game. He’s been using it effectively as ever so far in his nine matches this season, and for that reason I’m going with Woods for my prediction.
Prediction: Woods by decision
Team score prediction: Iowa 9, Penn State 3
149: #10 Max Murin, Iowa vs #12 Shayne Van Ness, Penn State
This is possibly the most intriguing and hard-to-predict match of the entire dual. Similar to 141, we’re going to find out where Shayne Van Ness is on the 149 ladder. So far Van Ness is undefeated against everyone except Austin Gomez and Paniro Johnson. He might not yet be ready to take out the top dogs, but #10?
This match going is going to be a dogfight. Probably not a lot of takedowns, but for sure a lot of hard hand-fighting. I like the diversity of attacks from Van Ness, but I also like the tenacity and experience of Murin.
Prediction: Murin by decision
Team score prediction: Iowa 12, Penn State 3
157: #14 Cobe Siebrecht, Iowa vs #12 Levi Haines / Terrell Barraclough, Penn State
Levi Haines has competed at five events so far this season. As a true freshman, that means that the next time he competes attached, he can no longer redshirt. I like what I’ve seen from the Pennsylvania native so far this season. After suffering an overtime loss to Northern Colorado’s Vinny Zerban in his first tournament of the season, he’s rattled off 10 straight wins with the most recent being over All-American Will Lewan.
I have no inside info, but I think PSU goes with the hot hand in Haines. If Haines goes, he’s the favorite. If Barraclough goes, Siebrecht becomes the favorite. Siebrecht does have the big move X factor, but I don’t see it being effective against someone as good as Haines.
Prediction: Haines by decision
Team score prediction: Iowa 12, Penn State 6
165: #11 Patrick Kennedy, Iowa vs #5 Alex Facundo, Penn State
This is going to be another close match. Both of them redshirt freshmen, Patrick Kennedy is 12-2 on the year and Facundo is 14-1. They both share a loss to David Carr and Dean Hamiti handed Kenendy his second loss of the season last week. As you can see, they have very similar resumes. The similarities go all the way back to high school where the two wrestled in Who’s Number One 2019. Kennedy won that match 5-2.
https://www.flowrestling.org/video/6571843-170-lbs-whos-1-patrick-kennedy-minnesota-vs-alex-facundo-michigan
Kennedy is more known for his forward pressure and pace while Facundo has one of the best duck unders in D1 wrestling and great match tactics. If Facundo can avoid getting scored on from front headlock, I think he wins.
Prediction: Facundo by decision
Team score prediction: Iowa 12, Penn State 9
174: #17 Nelson Brands, Iowa vs #1 Carter Starocci, Penn State
Nelson Brands is as tough as they come, but Carter Starocci is as good as they come. A 2X NCAA champion and undefeated in his last 38 matches, Starocci is one of the country’s best pound-for-pound wrestlers. While he’s 9 for 10 this year picking up bonus points, Brands has only been majored, teched, or pinned once in his career. Starocci wins easily, but not by enough to get the major.
Prediction: Starocci by decision
Team score prediction: Iowa 12, Penn State 12
184: #10 Abe Assad, Iowa vs #1 Aaron Brooks, Penn State
A very similar match-up to 174. 2X NCAA champion vs an All-American contender. I just don’t see a path to victory for the underdog in this match. Last season it was an 8-3 victory for Brooks. In 2020 it was 7-3. I think Brooks has widened the gap even more. We saw him completely dismantle Parker Keckeisen at the NWCA All-Star Classic earlier this season.
Prediction: Brooks by major decision
Team score prediction: Penn State 16, Iowa 12
197: #10 Jacob Warner, Iowa vs #2 Max Dean, Penn State
A rematch of the 2022 NCAA finals! Max Dean watch that match by a narrow 3-2 score. However, with a score of 8-3 in favor of Dean, the dual wasn’t as close last year. I can’t quite put my finger on it, but Jacob Warner hasn’t looked quite right this season. At least, not quite as tight as the 2022 NCAAs Warner. Suffering two losses on the year, Dean hasn’t been invincible, but Warner’s losses and close matches in the second half of the season so far have me more worried.
Prediction: Dean by decision
Team score prediction: Penn State 19, Iowa 12
Watch Dean and Warner’s 2022 NCAA final highlights below.
285: #3 Anthony Cassioppi, Iowa vs #2 Greg Kerkvliet, Penn State
My predictions don’t have this dual coming down to heavyweight, but my goodness it sure would be exciting if it did. Especially considering I’m not confident in my pick. Cassioppi dominated this rivalry with a 3-0 record in the first couple years of their college careers. However, Kerkvliet has been a different cat this year and finally beat Cassioppi at the NWCA All-Star Classic. While Kerkvliet dominated the first 6 minutes of the match, Cassioppi’s gas tank as well as a reversal and escapes kept him in the match. The final score was 8-5 with a riding time point for Kerkvliet. If Cassioppi can get away from Kerkvliet quickly, this match could be very interesting.
Prediction: Kerkvliet by decision
Team score prediction: Penn State 22, Iowa 12
Watch Kerkvliet and Cassioppi’s NWCA All-Star match below
Bonus content: check out Spey and Bray's predictions in a whiteboard war below:
