Worlds Team Race Breakdown: USA vs Iran, Who Has The Advantage?
Worlds Team Race Breakdown: USA vs Iran, Who Has The Advantage?
A weight-by-weight breakdown of where each country holds the advantage at this year's World Championships.
Team USA narrowly edged Iran last year for second place at the World Championships, but with Russia not competing at this year’s World Championships, the United States and Iran are slated for an epic battle to claim the title of World champions. Seven of last year’s 10 World Team members return for Team USA and eight of Iran’s return, so who’s got the advantage?
We won’t know the draws until the day before, but we do know the top eight seeds at each weight.
Weight By Weight Breakdown
57: advantage USA
61: toss-up
65: advantage Iran
70: advantage Iran
74: advantage USA
79: advantage USA
86: toss-up
92: toss-up
97: toss-up
125: advantage Iran
The rankings used are pulled from Kozak’s men’s international freestyle rankings, which include Russians, Belarusians, and multiple guys per country per weight. You can also check out his World Championship rankings which only include wrestlers who will be at the World Championships.
57 kg: #3 Thomas Gilman vs #7 Alireza Sarlak
This will be a rematch of the 2021 World finals where Thomas Gilman won 5-3.
Watch Gilman and Sarlak’s 2021 World final below.
The two met more recently in the semis at the Tunisia Ranking Series tournament in July. Gilman won the match in a similar fashion.
Watch the highlights from Gilman and Sarlak’s 2022 match below.
With Gilman receiving the #1 seed and Alireza Sarlak receiving the #4, this won’t be a final this year, but a semifinal. The key to a victory for Gilman is getting to his control collar tie and getting to a lock when he shoots the single leg. When Gilman is able to lock his hands around Sarlak’s leg, he’s able to score either a takedown or step out 90% of the time. In match #2 when he shot but didn’t get to a lock, Sarlak was able to counter.
61 kg: #9 Seth Gross vs #10 Reza Atri
Both of these guys are unseeded and will be randomly drawn into the bracket. If they wrestle, I truly have no idea what will happen, but that largely has to do with the fact that I feel Seth Gross can go with almost anyone in this bracket, but also lose to almost anyone in this bracket. After a handful of years at 57 kg where he won Asians and took 5th at Worlds in 2019, Atri is in his first season up at 61 kg. Lacking a strong underhook, he doesn’t wrestle like a stereotypical Iranian. He’s not super offensive but does have a nice outside high c. Will Gross be able to scramble his way to victory?
65 kg: Yianni Diakomihalis vs #5 Rahman Amouzad
Rahman Amouzad isn’t just one of the best wrestlers at 65 kg, he’s one of the most exciting as well. I implore you to go back and watch his run throught the 2021 Junior World Championships where he was running through the field. In his most recent competition he went through Japan, Mongolia, and even Bajrang Punia en route to a gold medal. Almost all of his offense comes from the over under position, but he’s got other offense as well. Against Bajrang, he used an outside step to win.
Watch Rahman Amouzad’s electric scoring highlight from the 2022 Asians below.
That’s not to say Yianni Diakomihalis doesn’t stand a chance. Neither one of these guys will have a seed and both will get randomly drawn into the bracket. With the depth of 65 kg, just about anything can happen.
70 kg: #14 Zain Retherford vs #2 Amir Yazdani
It might seem like a daunting task for Zain Retherford to bring home a medal when you see he’s ranked fourteenth in the world. However, considering he’s only ranked #5 among wrestlers who will actually be at the World Championships, it doesn’t seem like such an unachievable task. Amir Yazdani is for sure the on-paper favorite if the two meet head-to-head, but he’s not untouchable. A World silver medalist last year at 65 kg, this is Baby Yaz’s first season up at 70 kg. With a win over James Green at the Yasar Dogu in February, he’s adjusting well to the move.
Watch Amir Yazdani beat James Green at the 2022 Yasar Dogu below.
74 kg: #2 Kyle Dake vs #14 Younes Emami
Not much to say here. Kyle Dake is arguably USA’s best wrestler and Younes Emami is arguably Iran’s worst. As long as Dake is healthy, he has a massive advantage over Emami. Dake will be the #1 seed and Emami the #5, so this is a potential quarterfinal.
79 kg: #1 Jordan Burroughs vs #5 Mohammad Nokhodi
Jordan Burroughs is seeking World title #6 and is the odds-on-favorite to get it done. His biggest threat will be the Iranian he defeated in last year’s World finals 5-1. I feel good about Burroughs getting it done. Mohammad Nokhodi was unable to even come close to scoring an offensive point against Burroughs in 2021 and Burroughs was able to blast through him twice on a double leg. While I’m confident in Burroughs, Nokhodi can’t be overlooked. He was only 20 years old in Oslo, so I expect to see an improved version in Belgrade. Also, he beat Chance Marsteller, who took a match from Burroughs at Final X, in July at the Tunisia Ranking Series tournament 10-0. You can watch the highlights of that match HERE.
Watch Jordan Burroughs and Mohammad Nokhodi’s 2021 World final below.
86 KG: #2 David Taylor vs #1 Hassan Yazdani
Here we go. This is the match we all want to see. David Taylor won in the Olympic finals last August, but Hassan Yazdani won at Worlds in October. If you’re reading this, you’re probably aware of the back story and just how big this match is. Not just for these individuals, but with a team race on the line as well. This isn’t just #1 vs #2 at 86 kg, it’s #4 vs #5 pound-for-pound.
Watch me break down what made the difference in round 4 of Taylor Yazdani below.
92 kg: #3 J’den Cox vs #1 Kamran Ghasempour
This is another one US fans will want back. J’den Cox lost to Kamran Ghasempour on criteria, 3-3, in the semifinals of last year’s World Championships.
Watch J’den Cox and Kamran Ghasempour’s 2021 World semifinal match below.
With #2 Magomed Kurbanov of Russia not competing this year, Cox and Ghasempour are heavy favorites to make the finals. Cox will have to make it past #2 seed Osman Nurmagomedov of Azerbaijan first and Ghasempour past Andrii Vlasov of Ukraine. I’m not sure who will win if the two rematch, but I’m sure it will be very close either way.
97 kg: #2 Kyle Snyder vs #4 Mohammad Mohammadian
This one is very interesting because Kyle Snyder is coming in as the favorite, but Mohammad Mohammadian won in dominating fashion the only time the two wrestled.
Watch Mohammadian pin Snyder at the 2020 Matteo Pellicone below.
Snyder is coming in as the favorite despite this because, since that match, Mohammadian went 0-1 at the Olympics and failed to make the Iranian team in 2021 while Snyder took silver at the Olympics and Worlds.
Even if Snyder does lose, I definitely don’t think it will be a blowout like it was in 2020. Snyder always brings his A game to Worlds and Olympics. Despite Mohammadian being Snyder’s biggest threat IMO, he will be going into Belgrade as the #5 seed. This sets up maybe the most anticipated quarterfinal of the entire tournament.
125 kg: #17 Hayden Zillmer vs #1 Amir Zare
This is the biggest disparity between the two teams. While it took everything Hayden Zillmer had to defeat Nick Gwiazdowski and make the US Team, Amire Zare has beaten Gwiazdowski three times with ease. The first came at the 2019 Alans where Zare won 10-0, then the 2021 Poland Open where Zare won by cautioning Gwiazdowski out of the match, and then the 2021 World Championships where Zare won 10-0. Despite only being 21 years old, Zare can push and throw just about anyone around the mat. He’s coming off an incredible 2021 Worlds where, in addition to Gwiz, he defeated two legends in Taha Akgul and Geno Petriahsvili. To put it in further context, it took Gable Steveson two crazy late scores to beat Gno while Zare beat him 9-2. He is one of the best pound-for-pound wrestlers in the world.