Penn State Closed The Gap At Big Tens. Can They Catch Iowa?
Penn State Closed The Gap At Big Tens. Can They Catch Iowa?
Penn State has moved closer to Iowa in the projected team score for NCAAs after the Big Ten Championships. Can they pass the Hawks?
Unlock this article, live events, and more with a subscription!
Already a subscriber? Log In
Ever since the injury of heavyweight NCAA champion Anthony Cassar, the team title has seemed just out of reach for the Nittany Lions, but their history of winning on the biggest stage has left many wrestling fans wondering if there's still a path to victory for the perennial powerhouse.
Iowa's stacked lineup has left little hope for anyone else to take home the title in Minneapolis, but several Hawkeyes performed below their seeds at Big Tens. So now, after Big Tens, is the door open, even a little bit, for Penn State to pass Iowa?
Nittany Lions Trending Up
Four Penn State starters had results that moved them up in the final NCAA rankings before the NCAA Championships, and four more weight classes maintained their point projections.
Penn State was not expected to score significant points at 125, 157, or 285. That didn't change after Big Tens. The other starter who stayed put was 184-pounder Aaron Brooks. While he didn't move from his #6 spot in the rankings, he did win a Big Ten title, further cementing himself as an NCAA title contender.
The four starters who moved up were Roman Bravo-Young at 133, Jarod Verkleeren at 149, Mark Hall at 174, and Shakur Rasheed at 197.
Bravo-Young moved from #4 to #3 in the rankings by officially beating Austin DeSanto in the Big Ten semifinals. He had previously beaten DeSanto by injury default, a result that didn't impact the rankings. The move from #4 to #3 also displaces DeSanto from his #2 spot in the rankings and drops him to #4, a net positive of 5.5 points for Penn State.
Jarod Verkleeren climbed one spot in the rankings despite finishing ninth at Big Tens. He only moved from #16 to #15 in the rankings, an insignificant jump in terms of projected team points, but he split matches with Yahya Thomas of Northwestern and beat Graham Rooks of Indiana, two wins that suggest Verkleeren could be a factor at NCAAs.
Shakur Rasheed, an All-American in 2018, had his best showing of the season, splitting matches with Iowa's Jacob Warner. Rasheed only moved from #18 to #14 in the rankings, but the result also dropped Warner from #3 to #6. Those two adjustments to the rankings moved Penn State 5.5 points closer to Iowa.
The most significant result in terms of projected team points was Mark Hall's win over Michael Kemerer in the 174-pound championship match. The two swapped rankings, so Hall returns to the #1 spot he held for most of the season while Kemerer drops to #2. That rankings trade moves Penn State eight points closer to the Hawkeyes.
Not All Good News for PSU
While the Big Ten Championships largely gave Penn State fans reason to be optimistic, their results at 141 and 165 rained on their parade.
At 141, Nick Lee dropped his finals rematch with #2 Luke Pletcher. Those two switch places in the rankings, taking four points off the board for Penn State.
Vincenzo Joseph also lost his #1 ranking. To make matters worse, that result happened in a head-to-head match with Hawkeye Alex Marinelli. This is a net plus-eight move for Iowa, negating much of the progress Penn State made with their improved projections in the previous section.
Hawkeyes Who Slid
Six of 10 Iowa starters dropped in their national rankings following the Big Ten Championships. The lost ground at 133, 141, 157, 174, 184, and 197. As noted above, three Hawkeyes fell as a result of head-to-head matches against Penn State.
Austin DeSanto finished fourth in the Big Ten with losses to RBY and Seth Gross. He falls from #2 to #4. That, combined with RBY's move from #4 to #3 moves Penn State 5.5 points closer as mentioned earlier.
Michael Kemerer and Mark Hall traded places in the rankings after their match in the finals, moving Penn State eight points closer to Iowa.
Jacob Warner split matches with Shakur Rasheed, moving him from #3 to #6 which, as stated above, move Penn State 5.5 points closer to Iowa.
At 184, Abe Assad was ranked #9 heading into Big Tens but fell to #10 after losing to Nebraska's Taylor Venz for third place. That drop doesn't impact his projected team points, but it does slightly dampen the Hawkeyes' hopes of Assad jumping into an All-American spot.
Max Murin's moved from #3 to #5 after losing to Mitch McKee in the quarterfinals and to Chad Red in the consolation semifinals. That takes 3.5 points away from Iowa's projected total.
Kaleb Young went 0-2 at Big Tens which dropped him from #6 to #10 in the country, a seven-point dip in projected team points.
The Good News for Iowa
The Hawkeyes still got the productivity they've come to count on from #1 Spencer Lee and #3 Tony Cassioppi at Big Tens. Both finished at their seed projections and looked good doing so.
The even better news for Iowa is that Alex Marinelli and Pat Lugo won Big Ten titles moving both from #2 to #1 in the country. Lugo's win over Sammy Sasso nets the Hawks four points while Marinelli's win over Vincenzo Joseph gives Iowa a plus-eight advantage over Penn State as state above.
Can PSU Win?
Despite Penn State's generally positive performance at Big Tens, their projected team total before bonus points actually dropped a bit. They moved from a projected total of 80 to 78.
The good news for Nittany Lion fans is that Iowa dropped significantly more. Heading into Big Tens, they were projected to score 139.5. Now, that number has been reduced by 14.5 to 125.
The 47-point gap between Iowa and Penn State looks nearly insurmountable, but Penn State has proven that they have NCAA title contenders at 133, 141, 165, 174, and 184. Shakur Rasheed and Jarod Verkleeren are also potential point-scorers.
Penn State will probably need all of that plus a down-performance for Iowa to win a title in Minneapolis, but it isn't impossible. It's highly unlikely, but it isn't impossible.