Here's How Purdue Can Beat #1 Iowa... Or Get Shut Out
Here's How Purdue Can Beat #1 Iowa... Or Get Shut Out
If #6 Purdue manages to upset #1 Iowa, or get shut out, it will probably go down like this.
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The #1 ranked Iowa Hawkeyes will be the overwhelming favorites when they arrive in West Lafayette this Sunday for a dual meet with the Purdue. And while the Hawkeyes are as formidable a squad as they've been in years, all hope is not lost for the #6 Boilermakers.
#1 Iowa (4-0) vs #6 Purdue (7-1)
Date: Jan. 12 | Time: 4 PM ET | Where: West Lafayette, IN
Broadcast Info: WATCH LIVE HERE
Though they will be longshots, Purdue has assembled one of their best teams in years and have a legitimate, if slim, chance at knocking off the current favorites to win the 2020 NCAA title.
Probable lineups:
IOWA | WT | PURDUE |
#1 Spencer Lee, JR | 125 | #7 Devin Schroder, JR |
#2 Austin DeSanto, JR | 133 | Travis Ford-Melton, FR |
#7 Max Murin, SO | 141 | Parker Filius, SO |
#1 Pat Lugo, SR | 149 | #14 Griffin Parriott, JR |
#4 Kaleb Young, JR | 157 | #6 Kendall Coleman, FR |
#2 Alex Marinelli, JR | 165 | #23 Emil Soehnlen, FR |
#3 Michael Kemerer, SR | 174 | #4 Dylan Lydy, SR |
#9 Cash Wilcke, SR | 184 | Max Lyon, JR |
#4 Jacob Warner, SO | 197 | #2 Christian Brunner, SR |
#4 Tony Cassioppi, FR | 285 | Tommy Penola, FR |
There's still plenty of season between now and March but it's still more than a little impressive that Iowa has all ten starters in the top 10 and eight in the top 4. But Purdue is not without hammers of their own, and if the Boilermakers are going to pull of the upset, it will probably go down like this.
125 Pounds
Spencer has been obliterating his opponents this season, but Schroeder will be the toughest collegiate opponent he's faced this season. Schroder will need to hold the tech-diSpencer to a major.
Spencer has been held to less than five team points once before this season:
Iowa 4, Purdue 0
133 Pounds
TFM had his redshirt pulled after the Michigan State Open and has performed admirably for a true freshman. He'll have to up his game to avoid giving up bonus against DeSanto, a wrestler now synonymous with seven minutes of frenzied pace.
Recent results at the Midlands, where DeSanto finished second and Ford-Melton went 2-2, would indicate that this is a mismatch. If TFM can weather the DeSanto storm in neutral, holding this match to a major is a real possibility.
Iowa 8, Purdue 0
141 Pounds
Parker Filius had one loss before Midlands -- to Dom Demas -- where he also dropped bouts to Michael Blockhus and Sal Profaci. Meanwhile, Max Murin won that same bracket in Hoffman Estates and has a clean 8-0 record on the season.
Murin has missed some action early in the season, and a fully healthy Filius may be able to take advantage of a less than 100% Murin. The Hawkeyes will be heavy favorites again, but Murin only has one bonus win against D1 competition this season. It's not much of a stretch to predict a regular decision for Murin.
Iowa 11, Purdue 0
149 Pounds
If the dual starts at 125, 149 will be a crucial weight for Purdue's upset chances, and that will likely take an upset from Griffin Parriott over the #1 ranked Pat Lugo.
Iowa 11, Purdue 3
157 Pounds
KC Stampede will need to exact revenge against Kaleb Young to keep the Boilermakers in this dual. Young downed Coleman in sudden victory in the semifinals of the Midlands.
Coleman got the first takedown with a very slick slideby in the first. In the third, Young's relentless misdirection single (which is sneakier than it looks) eventually caught up with Coleman, and the two would go to overtime with a takedown and two escapes apiece.
One of the wildest scrambles in the first sudden victory saw Young squirm his way to a takedown with 5 seconds left in the match. Two seconds later a pinfall was recorded.
You can watch the full match below:
Home mat advantage would theoretically give Coleman the edge in this toss-up, especially if he varies his attacks and includes a low-level blast double that he's capable, which would pair nicely with his shrugs.
Iowa 11, Purdue 6
165 Pounds
Alex Marinelli has been on a tear this season. He's 10-0 with half of those victories coming by way of pinfall. But Emil Soehnlen is better than his 9-6 record would suggest. Two of those losses were to #4 Josh Sheilds and the other four were to high caliber competitors. He'll have to wrestle his best, but if Soehnlen can slow down the Bull and can keep this to a decision, he'll help keep Purdue within striking distance.
Iowa 14, Purdue 6
174 Pounds
If the Purdue is going to upset Iowa they are going to need to have some of their wrestlers pull off some individual upsets. Undefeated senior Dylan Lydy is as good a candidate as any of the Boilermakers. He'll have to do it over two-time All-American Michael Kemerer.
Iowa 14, Purdue 9
184 Pounds
Max Lyon is another upperclassman that is going to have to pull off an upset to keep his team's hopes alive. Though hampered by injuries, Lyon has wrestled a full slate of matches and laid hands on many of the best wrestlers in the division. Cash Wilcke beat Lyon last year at Big Tens, but we're constructing a means by which Purdue wins this dual, not stating what is the most likely to happen in each bout.
Also worth keeping in mind that, we could see true freshman Abe Assad or redshirt freshman Nelson Brands at 184. Assad wrestled against Indiana on Friday and beat Jake Hinz 5-2.
Iowa 14, Purdue 12
197 Pounds
Speaking of describing what has to happen for an upset versus what is most likely to happen, at 197, if Purdue wants to win, Christian Brunner is probably going to have to pin Jacob Warner. Is it likely? Definitely not. It might be the least likely thing to happen in any of the ten matches we describe. But Iowa is not going to lose without something extremely flukey happening. So don't think of this as a prediction at all, but as a rare occurrence at just the right time that produced a historic dual meet result.
Watch Brunner win a 2019 Midlands title:
Iowa 14, Purdue 18
285 Pounds
Rocknrolla Tommy Penola will need to come up with a heavyweight save. A tall order, literally and figuratively, as Tony Cassioppi is all about the pinfall. If Penola can stay off his back and limit the margin of defeat to seven or less points, then we don't even have to go to criteria and the Boilermaker student section can commence storming the mats.
Iowa 17, Purdue 18
Now, to reiterate, it is very unlikely Purdue walks away from this competition as victors. However, we've already seen a very unlikely result in a dual meet this season.
But in the spirit of telling both sides of the story, let's do a very brief rundown of what would have to happen for Iowa to shut out Purdue in West Lafayette.
125 Pounds
Spencer has a 100% bonus rate so far.
Iowa 5, Purdue 0
133 Pounds
Because DeSanto.
Iowa 10, Purdue 0
141 Pounds
Murin just won the Midlands bracket in which Filius failed to place.
Iowa 13, Purdue 0
149 Pounds
Pat Lugo is the #1 wrestler in the country for a reason.
Iowa 17, Purdue 0
157 Pounds
It was close at Midlands but Young still got the dub.
Iowa 20, Purdue 0
165 Pounds
Marinelli has pinned half of his opponents this season, all of whom are D1 wrestlers.
Iowa 26, Purdue 0
174 Pounds
Kemerer is a two-time All-American and Lydy is still looking for his first podium placement after three unsuccessful attempts.
Iowa 29, Purdue 0
184 Pounds
Cash beat Lyon twice last season.
Iowa 34, Purdue 0
197 Pounds
Warner beat Brunner 6-0 at last year's Big Ten Championships.
Iowa 37, Purdue 0
285 Pounds
Big Tone pinned Penola in the first period at the Midlands.
Iowa 43, Purdue 0
Neither a shutout nor an upset are likely to happen Sunday afternoon, but this was still fun. And what you should expect to see is an exciting Big Ten rivalry featuring over a dozen top-ranked wrestlers. And in the end, it isn't so much a potential historic dual meet result that matters the most, but the friends we made along the way.