Four Key Talking Points For Round 1 Of The Guinness Six Nations
Four Key Talking Points For Round 1 Of The Guinness Six Nations
The Six Nations returns! With four contenders and two wildcard teams, can Ireland defend its title, or will England, France or Scotland steal the crown?
It’s here, it’s finally here! Yes, rugby fans, the Northern Hemisphere’s premier rugby competition has returned for the 25th time.
Now just over 24 hours away from kickoff, the Guinness Six Nations once again takes center stage in the rugby public’s consciousness.
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Unlike any other sporting tournament outside of the Safe for the Americas Cup or modern Olympics, the Six Nations Championship, which dates back 142 years in various guises, is about as finely poised as at any moment in time.
Realistically, four of the six teams will back themselves as genuine title contenders, while the other two (Wales and Italy) will fancy themselves as berserkers capable of derailing another team’s title ambitions.
Of course, only three teams will depart Round 1 capable of completing a Grand Slam this season.
Leading the charge is back-to-back reigning champion Ireland and 2022 champion France, which will be hoping to stay on track for a potential title decider in Round 4.
Just behind this pair is England, which, thanks to a last-minute Marcus Smith drop goal, denied Ireland back-to-back Grand Slams in 2024, and Scotland, which was denied a chance to defeat France by a controversial no-try ruling.
Ahead of kickoff, here are four key storylines for fans to track throughout Round 1:
England’s Bold Approach
Naming his team early in the week, England head coach Steve Borthwick laid his cards on the table for the world to see.
Immediately popping off the page was the selection of twins Tom and Ben Curry alongside Ben Earl in the backrow. This selection, at least on paper, would indicate a clear directive from the England coaching staff that they will be targeting Ireland’s breakdown with a fury unlike any seen since the storming of Normandy.
By selecting three natural opensides, Borthwick is willing to sacrifice attacking arguably Ireland’s biggest weakness (the line-out), instead attack the team's big strength (the breakdown).
All three of the starters cover ground at a rapid rate and have the ability to squeeze the life out of a breakdown by latching on immediately.
Keeping an ace in his sleeve, Borthwick’s bench of Ollie Chessum, Chandler Cunningham-South and Tom Willis could not be more different than the starters.
Both Chessum and Cunningham-South are tall timber who not only wreak havoc at the line-out, they also are lethal options in the wide channels for cross-field kicks.
In Willis, England, has an old-school bruiser of a No. 8. At 120 kilograms, Willis packs a punch in the carry and has the potential to be a mismatch against a tiring Irish pack.
Of course, this concept looks great on paper, but how will it play out in reality? Only time will tell.
Fly-Half Showdowns
Sticking to the showdown at the Aviva Stadium, both sides enter the clash with intriguing in-house fly-half battles.
Getting the respective nods to start, Sam Prendergast (Ireland) and Marcus Smith (England) get the first crack of the whip, while Jack Crowley (Ireland) and Fin Smith (England) likely will be tasked with being the finishers.
Starting with the Irish starter who has had a meteoric rise over the past six months from dominant U20 star to first choice for Leinster and Ireland, Prendergast has been hailed as the second coming of Johnny Sexton but at a far younger age than the Irish icon.
Blessed with an ability to have time on the ball before pulling the trigger with a clever pass or kick, Prendergast’s similarities to Sexton are obvious to see.
In addition to open play, Prendergast’s ability to milk every inch out of his touch, finding kicks, is breathtaking. Where he remains untested is when a test defense gets into his passing channels and limits his options, while defensively, there is no doubt he is not yet the finished article.
On the other side of the ledger, Marcus Smith appeared to take a major step forward last season as England’s first-choice playmaker. Bringing an up-tempo style to the English game, Smith’s greatest strength is the ability to break the defensive line with his pace or deft kicking game.
The big question that circles his game is whether Borthwick is willing to fully commit to an expansive game plan that allows his players to make decisions of their own. To date, the data-driven Borthwick has yet to fully relax his grip on pre-planned game plans, with his head-scratching substitutions costing England heavily in November.
Behind Prendergast, Crowley clearly has been dinged for Munster’s inconsistency and no doubt will look to lay down a marker when given a chance.
Having guided Ireland to the title last season, Crowley, who rarely has put a foot wrong, has all of the characteristics to recapture the starting role before the Championship is done.
Defensively, he is light-years ahead of Prendergast, and while he does not possess the same kicking game as his Leinster rival, he is no slouch in this department. In attack, his ability to take the ball to the line, and his power to break through, have been the hallmark of his success to date.
On the English bench, Northampton’s Fin Smith is similar to Crowley as a resolute defender, and while he might not quite have the top-end pace of Marcus, his distribution skills are top-notch, as his consistency with the boot.
Interestingly, outside of Wales, which has more issues than just fly-half, Ireland and England are in an unfamiliar position of not having one dominant 10, but several potential options (Ciaran Frawley and George Ford).
Welsh Pulse
Paris, opening night, a French team looking to right some wrongs from last year - it doesn’t get a whole lot tougher for a young Welsh team in Round 1.
If you are a Welsh fan looking to cling to positivity, France generally starts slow in this competition due to a lack of cohesion. This, coupled with several key injuries (Damian Penaud, Charles Ollivon, Thibaud Flament, Gael Fickou) and France likely won’t be quite as good as it could be later in the tournament. Despite these factors, anything other than a 20-plus point victory for France would be surprising.
To date, Warren Gatland’s second tenure has highlighted just how blessed Wales was with its golden generation of players between 2008-2019. Since the retirement of most of this group, Wales has lacked power, dynamism and, most crucial, belief that the team can compete with the big boys of World Rugby.
Taking this into account, Wales should look to last season’s 45-24 home loss to a weaker French side (without Antoine Dupont) as a yardstick. If Wales can close the gap on the road and show flashes of potential before circling the wagons for their biggest clash of this year’s Championship with Italy in Round 2 ,then that will be a start.
Certainly, things will get better for Wales in time, whether that is soon enough for Gatland to remain is very much up in the air.
Contenders Or Pretenders Once Again?
This is our year!
That is the noise out of the Scotland camp for about the last 8-10 seasons. Yet, for all of the talent and bravado, Scotland has yet to win more than three matches in the Championship.
Heading into the 2024 Championship, Scotland was heavily tipped to contend for a title but came unstuck against France, Italy and Ireland. Of those three sides, Ireland has been the Scots' bogey team, losing the last 10 on the bounce to the men in green, as well as 17 of the last 20.
This year presents arguably their best chance of overturning their Celtic rivals, with Ireland set to face a physical onslaught from England in Round 1, while the Scots host Italy at Murrayfield for what will be a fascinating battle.
Taking into account Ireland’s gradual transition to blooding new players in key positions, if Gregor Townsend’s side cannot take advantage of an Andy Farrell-less Ireland, they will not beat the men in green any time soon.
Before this giant clash in Round 2, there's the small matter of getting revenge over Italy for the shock loss in Rome last season, which ultimately was the low point of their season.
At Murrayfield, Townsend’s side is the heavy favorite, but as Italy showed against the All Blacks in November, and in last year’s Championship, the days of them being pushovers are long gone.
Under Gonzalo Quesada, the Azzurri are a calculated operation which, outside of a thumping against Argentina, is a more consistent outfit. If the Italians remain in the fight, it will be a real acid test for Townsend’s side as an 80-minute outfit.
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