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NCAA Division II Football Playoffs: Quarterfinal Preview and Predictions

NCAA Division II Football Playoffs: Quarterfinal Preview and Predictions

Here’s a look ahead at all four Division II playoff games this weekend — along with predictions for the entirety of the quarterfinals.

Dec 6, 2024 by Briar Napier
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Hundreds of NCAA Division II football teams started their seasons back in August.

Just eight are left standing.

In a playoff field full of stunners as half of the teams remaining are unseeded, the final eight to make it this far in the D-II bracket is set and stone, and it’s full of former champions and hungry newcomers.

All four regional championships will be decided this weekend, of which after that, teams will be reseeded for the semifinals and the race to McKinney will get even more high stakes.

The primer for all you need to know about the four D-II playoff games on tap this weekend is below — and there are a few predictions to go along with each game, too.

Suit up, strap in, and enjoy the rest of the ride in D-II football.

Here’s a look ahead at all four Division II playoff games this weekend — along with predictions for the entirety of the quarterfinals:

Super Region 1

No. 4 Slippery Rock at No. 3 California (Pennsylvania)

The Rock didn’t make it easy on themselves, but their path to the quarterfinals for the second straight season did make for a lot of fun on the way there.

After having to take down New Haven for the second time this year in the first round of the playoffs, a long-awaited showdown between the two teams — Slippery Rock and Kutztown — many expected to meet in the Pennsylvania State Athletic Conference championship game was locked into place. And while a loss in conference play prevented Slippery Rock from meeting the Golden Bears prior to the postseason, their win-or-go-home meeting this past weekend ended up living to the hype and ending as an all-time playoff classic.

In one of the wildest finishes you’ll ever see, The Rock won 25-24 in overtime in Kutztown when quarterback Brayden Long threw a touchdown pass to Logan Ramper on their possession in the extra period, then executed a perfect hook-and-ladder play on the subsequent 2-point conversion — in which Idris Lawrence ran it in after a lateral from a screen pass caught by Mike Solomon — for an instantly legendary moment in a stunning upset over the previously-unbeaten Golden Bears.

Slippery Rock just seems to always get it done, someway and somehow, when the playoffs begin and the pressure is on. But does that extend to getting revenge for its only defeat on the season, too?

Cal took it to The Rock by pounding out a 28-7 win over them on Oct. 19 at home inside Adamson Stadium, the same venue in which the rematch will take place this weekend with a spot in the national semifinals up for grabs. It was the Vulcans’ first win over Slippery Rock since 2016, their first nationally-ranked win in three seasons, and the victory that essentially sealed their spot into the PSAC Championship Game, which they ended up losing to Kutztown by a touchdown.

Surviving a pair of nail-biters to begin its playoff push, Cal followed up a three-point win over another PSAC team in East Stroudsburg in the first round by eking out a one-point win over a surprise Ashland squad in the second round. There, the Vulcans escaped thanks to four total touchdowns from quarterback Davis Black, including the go-ahead touchdown pass (following the extra-point try) to Demonte Martin with 3:49 to play. 

Sure, on paper, Cal holds the advantage over the Rock in Round 2 between them as it won by three scores in the first matchup, but these are the playoffs we’re talking about here. Margins of error are even thinner than usual, and as a team that tends to win in close games (Cal has four margins of victory of four points or fewer this season), the Vulcans could be due for a time in which they run out of late-game magic. 

If so, that’s great news for Slippery Rock — and we predict that it’s the program from Super Region 1 going through onto the D-II final four. 

The pick: Slippery Rock

Super Region 2

Virginia Union at No. 1 Valdosta State

Already a program legend, Virginia Union running back Jada Byers can only add to his esteemed legacy in the Panthers’ program this weekend if he were to give VUU the new greatest win in its history just one week after he led the Panthers to their current greatest win in their history.

VUU is in the D-II quarterfinals for the first time ever after it pulled off one of the more shocking scores of the second round, a 44-12 dismantling of playoff stalwart Lenoir-Rhyne on the road. Keep in mind, the Panthers pulled the feat off while starting a backup quarterback — RJ Rosales has come out swinging since he filled in for Mark Wright in the middle of his team’s first-round victory against Wingate — and being away from home for the second straight week, too.

And as for Byers, if there’s a player who could single-handedly take down a Valdosta State team that many have tipped as the favorite to take this season’s national championship, it’s him.

Running like a man on a mission, the 5-foot-7 bowling ball has gotten the rock a ridiculous 307 times on the season and taken it for 1,952 yards and 26 touchdowns, tallying an average of over 150 yards per game. His workload didn’t lessen against Lenoir-Rhyne as he carried it for 185 yards and two scores on the ground, but he also crucially got some help in the backfield as Curtis Allen also had 132 yards and two scores to make them the first pair of Panthers teammates to each run for over 100 yards in the same game in three years.

However, an away visit to a hungry Valdosta State team is going to make for Byers and the Panthers’ toughest test yet.

The undefeated Gulf South Conference champion — and the only remaining unbeaten team left in D-II — didn’t have much trouble with Miles in its playoff opener, leading 30-3 at one point and finishing it out with a 33-17 scoreline. Blake Hester ran in two touchdowns and caught another, and the nation’s second-stingiest scoring defense (9.8 points allowed per game) remained lethal as the Blazers held the Golden Bears to just 83 yards rushing. 

Now, that VSU rushing defense is going to get its biggest test yet against the nation’s second-leading rusher, who only needs 53 yards to be the second D-II tailback this season to reach the 2,000-yard mark. The key for the Blazers might be limiting the Panthers’ offensive impact outside of Byers, however, especially if Wright is not back under center for the quarterfinals.

As for the Blazers’ options on the offensive front, quarterback Sammy Edwards has over 2,500 passing yards on the season with a 12:1 touchdown to interception ratio, making him as reliable of an arm as anyone in the country. VUU will put up a fight and Byers will do his thing, but VSU will roll into the semifinals.

The pick: Valdosta State

Super Region 3

Harding at No. 1 Ferris State

The winners of the last three D-II football national championships combined haven’t faced off against one another since 2018, and in what could be a potential game for the ages this weekend in Big Rapids which could decide the arguable favorite to take this year’s title, the stakes couldn’t be much higher. 

Let’s start by talking about the Bulldogs, and while it isn’t a surprise that Tony Annese’s program has reached the quarterfinal round for the seventh time in eight seasons (excluding the COVID-impacted, lost 2020 season), the way that it got back to that point was a bit more of a stunner. 

Holding a first-round bye as the Super Region’s top seed and welcoming in a Central Oklahoma team in the second round that featured a devastating offense (46.7 points per game entering last weekend), FSU decided to fight fire with fire in its playoff opener — and overwhelmingly made the right choice. 

Generating an incredible 688 yards of offense in the snow, the Bulldogs were absolutely awesome in a 78-17 rambling over the Bronchos in which quarterback Trinidad Chambliss had five total touchdowns and 319 yards of total offense and Kannon Katzer had a 200-yard day on the ground with three scores. Ferris has come a long way from only being able to muster up three points in its season opener at Pittsburg State back in August, and it now seems as if the Bulldogs are finally beginning to hit their final form.

Another team that can say the same is perhaps the most well-oiled machine of an offense in D-II right now: Harding.

Known nationwide for its devastating flexbone, run-till-you-drop offense that took them to a national championship last season, the Bisons had another trademark performance on the ground in their second-round win over another Great Lakes Intercollegiate Athletic Conference foe in Ferris’ Anchor-Bone rival, Grand Valley State.

Harding ran it 64 times for 475 yards and six touchdowns (quarterback Cole Keylon only attempted one pass all game, in fact) as the Bisons went up to Michigan to stomp out the Lakers 44-26, with Andrew Miller leading the charge in the backfield with a 202-yard, three-score performance. There was no hangover from their statement 48-3 first-round win at Pitt State, and for anyone that wrote Harding off after it lost in the regular season to Ouachita Baptist, it’s time to put it on your radar again.

In an almost impossible matchup to call between two of D-II’s finest programs, this is as much of a toss-up as it gets as both the Bisons and Bulldogs can light up the scoreboard and hold firm against their own endzones. But after agonizing on the pick for too long, we’ll call our shot; Chambliss orchestrates a game-winning drive that leads to a walk-off field goal to get Ferris into the semifinals.

The pick: Ferris State

Super Region 4

Bemidji State at Minnesota State

If you had four unseeded teams making the D-II quarterfinals — and/or two unseeded teams from the same Super Region playing each other with a trip to the semifinals on the line — you should probably buy a lottery ticket as soon as possible. Who could’ve seen all of this coming?

Goodbye conference champions Colorado State-Pueblo, Angelo State, and Augustana (South Dakota) from the Super Region 4 bracket and welcome Northern Sun Intercollegiate Conference representatives Minnesota State and Bemidji State to the regional final round. To call either team a “Cinderella” pick would feel a bit weird as both schools also made the playoffs a season ago (and the Mavericks have also made the national title game twice in the past decade), but both programs took the scenic route on their way to the quarters as they had to win back-to-back playoff games on the road to get to this point.

Minnesota State, still alive in its 15th D-II playoff appearance all-time, is the name more well-known to those who’ve followed D-II for a while now, but the Mavs had to use all of that pedigree in the two playoff victories that they took by a combined four points. The first came against Augustana in Sioux Falls, when kicker Matthew Jaeger buried a 34-yard field goal at the buzzer to sink the Vikings by a 20-19 margin after being down nine with 3:11 left, and the second came against the ThunderWolves in Pueblo as Jaeger once again came up clutch, kicking two field goals in the final minute to turn a 23-20 deficit into a 26-23 MSU win.

Meanwhile, at Bemidji State, the Beavers went on a midseason rescue mission to save their season after they were 5-3 at one point following a loss at Winona State, and have only turned into one of the hottest teams left standing in the country with five straight wins going into their first-ever quarterfinal appearance in program history.

Consecutive road victories — first at a warm Angelo State, then at a frigid Western Colorado — have gotten Bemidji State to this point, with the Beavers’ defense locking up in the latter game against the Mountaineers as they had a 79-yard scoop-and-score to flip the game on its head with just 3:29 left to play, giving BSU a late 20-19 lead that it would hold onto until the final horn for a dramatic postseason triumph. 

One of two rematches in the quarterfinals, this is the Beavers’ second time trekking to Mankato this season as they lost to the Mavericks 31-29 in Week 2, with Jaeger (who else?) kicking a game-winner through the uprights as time expired. BSU quarterback Sam McGath had over 275 total yards of offense and four touchdowns in that game, and things may come down to a late play in the second meeting between the two teams, too. We’ll ride with the hosts to go 2-0 against the Beavers, with the Mavs having proven capable of handling playoff pressure before. 

The pick: Minnesota State

When Are The NCAA Division II Football Playoffs?

  • First round: Saturday, Nov. 23
  • Second round: Saturday, Nov. 30 
  • Quarterfinals: Saturday, Dec. 7 
  • Semifinals: Saturday, Dec. 14
  • National championship: Saturday, Dec. 21

When Is The NCAA Division II Championship Game?

The NCAA Division II championship game is set for Saturday, Dec. 21 in McKinney, Texas.

NCAA Division II Football Playoff Schedule

First Round: Saturday, Nov. 23

  • Slippery Rock def. New Haven, 14-7
  • Ashland def. Charleston (W.Va.), 40-38
  • California (Pa.) def. East Stroudsburg, 30-27
  • Miles def. Carson-Newman, 14-13
  • Virginia Union def. Wingate, 34-31
  • Lenoir-Rhyne def. West Alabama, 37-34
  • Central Oklahoma def. Ouachita Baptist, 38-31
  • Grand Valley State def. UIndy, 24-7
  • Harding def. Pittsburg State, 48-3
  • Minnesota State def. Augustana (S.D.), 20-19
  • Western Colorado def. Central Washington, 28-21
  • Bemidji State def. Angelo State, 24-14

Second Round: Saturday, Nov. 30

  • Slippery Rock def. Kutztown, 25-24
  • California (Pa.) def. Ashland, 34-33
  • Valdosta State def. Miles, 33-17
  • Virginia Union def. Lenoir-Rhyne, 44-12
  • Ferris State def. Central Oklahoma, 78-17
  • Harding def. Grand Valley State, 44-26
  • Minnesota State def. CSU Pueblo, 26-23
  • Bemidji State def. Western Colorado, 20-19

Third Round: Saturday, Dec. 7

All Times Eastern

  • Slippery Rock vs. California (Pa.), 1 p.m.
  • Harding vs. Ferris State, 1 p.m.
  • Virginia Union vs. Valdosta State, 1 p.m.
  • Bemidji vs. Minnesota State, 3 p.m.

AFCA Division II Football Rankings

As of Nov. 18, 2024

  1. Valdosta St. (Ga.) (27) 10-0
  2. Ferris St. (Mich.) (3) 10-1
  3. Kutztown (Pa.) 11-0
  4. Harding (Ark.) 10-1
  5. Grand Valley St. (Mich.) 10-1
  6. Charleston (W.Va.) 11-0
  7. Colorado St.-Pueblo 10-1
  8. Central Oklahoma 10-1
  9. Ouachita Baptist (Ark.) 10-1
  10. Western Colorado 10-1
  11. Slippery Rock (Pa.) 9-1
  12. West Alabama 9-1
  13. Pittsburg St. (Kan.) 8-2
  14. Indianapolis (Ind.) 10-1
  15. Lenoir-Rhyne (N.C.) 9-2
  16. Angelo St. (Tex.) 9-2
  17. Wingate (N.C.) 9-1
  18. Colorado School of Mines 8-3
  19. Central Washington 8-3
  20. California (Pa.) 8-2
  21. West Florida 7-3
  22. Augustana (S.D.) 8-3
  23. Southern Arkansas 9-2
  24. Carson-Newman (Tenn.) 9-2
  25. Central Missouri 8-3

Dropped Out: Minnesota St. (18), Findlay (Ohio) (22).

Others Receiving Votes: Fort Hays St. (Kan.), 65; East Stroudsburg (Pa.), 45; Virginia Union, 38; Miles (Ala.), 36; Minnesota St., 34; New Haven (Conn.), 21; Findlay (Ohio), 18; Bemidji St. (Minn.), 9; Sioux Falls (S.D.), 4; Davenport (Mich.), 3; Ashland (Ohio), 2; Glenville St. (W.Va.), 1.

To see the D2Football.com Top 25 Poll, click here.

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