Northern Iowa vs South Dakota State Wrestling Preview & Predictions
Northern Iowa vs South Dakota State Wrestling Preview & Predictions
A full preview with predictions for the wrestling dual between Northern Iowa and South Dakota State on Sunday, November 24.
Northern Iowa will welcome South Dakota State to Cedar Falls on Sunday, November 24 in what should be an incredible dual. The dual is set to take place at 2:00 pm (ET) and you can watch it live on FloWrestling. Check out the below article to see the projected lineups and a full preview, with predictions, for the dual.
Projected UNI vs SD State Lineups:
125: #22 Trever Anderson, UNI vs #5 Tanner Jordan, SD State
133: #30 Julian Farber, UNI vs #27 Derrick Cardinal, SD State
141: #6 Cael Happel UNI vs Caleb Gross, SD State
149: #13 Colin Realbuto, UNI vs # 19 Alek Martin, SD State
157: #6 Ryder Downey vs #22 Cobe Siebrecht, SD State
165: #27 Jack Thomsen, UNI vs #28 Drake Rhodes, SD State
174: #14 Jared Simma, UNI vs #3 Cade DeVos, SD State
184: #2 Parker Keckeisen, UNI vs #4 Bennett Berge, SD State
197: #19 Wyatt Voelker, UNI vs #12 Zach Glazier, SD State
285: Lance Runyon, UNI vs #26 Luke Rasmussen, SD State
125: #22 Trever Anderson, UNI vs #5 Tanner Jordan, SD State
Jordan and Anderson have only wrestled once in their college careers with Jordan coming out on top in an 8-0 major decision win. That match happened exactly one year ago at the Daktronics Open. Jordan controlled that bout by riding Anderson for almost two minutes, gaining a reversal, and racking up 4 back points. It’s worth noting that the score was 0-0 after the first period so I expect this match to be closer now that Anderson knows to avoid going underneath Jordan. Still, Jordan is the favorite in this match and I expect him to win a controlling decision.
Jordan's win over Anderson:
Prediction: Jordan wins by decision
Team score prediction: UNI 0, SD State 3
133: #30 Julian Farber, UNI vs # 27 Derrick Cardinal, SD State
Cardinal has two past wins over Farber and will be the slight favorite heading into Sunday’s match. Both of their collegiate meetings came last season with Cardinal winning an 8-3 decision at the Daktronics Open in November and a 4-1 overtime match at the Big 12 Tournament. This is certainly a winnable match for Farber but I’m giving Cardinal the slight edge based on past results.
Cardinal's win over Farber at the Daktronics Open:
Prediction: Cardinal wins by decision
Team score prediction: UNI 0, SD State 6
141: #6 Cael Happel, UNI vs Caleb Gross, SD State
Cael Happel is one of the best wrestlers in the country at 141 pounds that has not yet earned All-American honors. He boasts a past 16-6 major decision win over Caleb Gross and will be a favorite to earn bonus points again in this potential matchup on Sunday. While the Jackrabbits won’t expect Gross to win, they’ll need him to avoid giving up bonus points for the sake of team score.
Prediction: Happel wins by major decision
Team score prediction: UNI 4, SD State 6
Cael Happel talked about Northern Iowa's Grit:
149: #13 Colin Realbuto, UNI vs # 19 Alek Martin, SD State
This is another swing match between two past national qualifiers and All-American contenders. Realbuto is the favorite here based on his 8-2 win last year over Martin. On top of that win, Realbuto also has notable victories over Victor Voinovich, Jackson Arrington, Sammy Sasso, and several other ranked wrestlers. I expect Martin to put up a good fight here and I wouldn’t be surprised if he pulls off the upset. He’s made significant improvements every year and this should be a close bout on Sunday.
Prediction: Realbuto wins by decision
Team score prediction: UNI 7, SD State 6
157: #6 Ryder Downey vs #22 Cobe Siebrecht, SD State
Though he missed All-American honors by one win at the 2024 NCAA Tournament, Ryder Downey had a breakout season last year. He compiled a 24-6 record while recording significant wins over Peyton Robb, Michael Blockhus, Cael Swensen, Cody Chittum, Teague Travis, Paddy Gallagher, and Trevor Chumbley. Siebrecht, a transfer from Iowa, had to sit out last year due to gambling violations but qualified for the NCAA Tournament in 2023. In that season, Siebrecht has significant wins over Will Lewan, Paddy Gallagher, Trevor Chumbley, and Brayton Lee. These two have never wrestled in their college careers and I expect this to be a battle on Sunday.
Prediction: Downey wins by decision
Team score prediction: UNI 10, SD State 6
Ryder Downey's win over Paddy Gallagher at the 2023 CKLV:
165: #27 Jack Thomsen, UNI vs #28 Drake Rhodes/Connor Gaynor, SD State
Thomsen has three past wins over Drake Rhodes - two coming last season and one two years ago. Despite that lopsided record, all three matches have been incredibly close - 9-8, 4-1 (OT), and 12-9. With that in mind, this is absolutely a toss-up match and although it’s not the most high-profile match of the dual, the outcome of the match at 165 could decide the dual.
Prediction: Thomsen wins by decision
Team score prediction: UNI 13, SD State 6
Jack Thomsen's win over Drake Rhodes at the 2022 Soldier Salute:
174: #14 Jared Simma, UNI vs #3 Cade DeVos, SD State
Cade DeVos is coming off the best year of his career where he placed 5th at the 2024 NCAA Tournament. During last season DeVos recorded wins over Lennox Wolak, Edmond Ruth, Carson Kharchla, and Travis Wittlake while only losing to Shane Griffith and Lennox Wolak. DeVos has never wrestled Simma in his college career but he’ll be a favorite heading into Sunday’s match.
Despite being the underdog, Simma had a solid year last season in his first year starting for Northern Iowa. Simma reached the round of 12 at the 2024 NCAA Tournament and recorded notable wins over Tyler Eischens, Phil Conigliaro, Tate Picklo, and several other ranked wrestlers. I expect DeVos to win but Simma should be able to hold this match to a decision.
Prediction: DeVos wins by decision
Team score prediction: UNI 13, SD State 9
Cade DeVos' win over Carson Kharchla at the 2023 CKLV:
184: #2 Parker Keckeisen, UNI vs #4 Bennett Berge, SD State
Returning NCAA champ Parker Keckeisen had an incredible season last year going 31-0 with an over 90% bonus rate. Bennett Berge had an up-and-down year but put it all together at the end of the season to finish 4th at the NCAA Tournament. I expect we see Berge wrestle more consistently this season but I still think he’ll have a hard time slowing down Keckeisen. Keckeisen is one of the best wrestlers in the country regardless of weight and I expect him to push for bonus points in this match.
Prediction: Keckeisen wins by major decision
Team score prediction: UNI 17, SD State 9
Keckeisen's win over Dustin Plott in the 2024 NCAA Finals:
197: #19 Wyatt Voelker, UNI vs #12 Zach Glazier, SD State
Zach Glazier had a breakout year last season for the Iowa Hawkeyes and rose to #10 in the rankings based on his wins over Jaxon Smith, Luke Geog, Luke Surber, and Silas Allred. However, Glazier chose to transfer to South Dakota State after the Iowa Hawkeyes brought in #1 ranked Stephen Buchanan to replace him at 197 this year.
Glazier should be considered a slight favorite heading into Sunday’s match against Voelker. The two wrestled two years ago with Glazier winning a controlling 12-3 major decision at the 2022 Soldier Salute. However, Voelker has made significant improvements and even defeated Glazier at the U23 Nationals over the summer. I’m predicting Glazier wins on Sunday but this match could go either way.
Prediction: Glazier wins by decision
Team score prediction: UNI 17, SD State 12
285: Lance Runyon, UNI vs #26 Luke Rasmussen, SD State
Lance Runyon returns to Northern Iowa’s lineup after missing last year with an injury and he’s remarkably up THREE weight classes since we last saw him compete at 174 in 2023. Runyon is a two-time NCAA qualifier at 174 and he could definitely surprise some people at heavyweight this year.
Rasmussen will be an interesting challenge for Runyon and a good litmus test for what we can expect from Runyon this year. Rasmussen isn’t the biggest heavyweight in the country but he’s tall (listed at 6'4") and should hold a significant size advantage over Runyon. I think the size advantage will be the difference for Rasmussen and am picking him to win a close decision.
Rasmussen's win over Air Force's Soren Herzog at the 2024 Daktronics Invite:
Prediction: Rasmussen wins by decision
Final team score prediction: UNI 17, SD State 15
Can South Dakota State Pull Off The Upset Over Northern Iowa?
I have this dual ending in a 5-5 split with Northern Iowa winning off bonus points at 141 and 184. That means South Dakota State will have to pull off an upset at one weight to flip the score in their favor. 165 is the most likely weight for that to happen considering how close the matches have been in the past between Rhodes and Thomsen. On the other side of things, Northern Iowa could blow this dual open if they pull off an upset win at 133, 197, or 285 - all matches that should be considered toss-ups. Regardless of what happens, this should be an amazing dual from start to finish and one you're not going to want to miss on Sunday afternoon!