Japan’s women’s freestyle wrestling team is good. Really good. 

The country’s recent Olympic performance proved it isn’t slowing down and that the next generation is better than ever. Japan secured four gold medals and two bronze — arguably its best Olympic performance. 

The last time Japan tasted defeat at the Worlds or Olympics was the 2012 World Championships where China won the team title. That’s 12 consecutive years of Japanese dominance — not counting the 2016 Worlds that included only two weight categories (Japan won).

Japan At The Worlds And Olympics Since 2013

The United States completed its most successful quad after finishing second to Japan at the World Championships from 2021 through 2023 and in the unofficial team standings at the 2024 Olympics. 

Sarah Hildebrandt (50 kg) and Amit Elor (68 kg) won gold, Kennedy Blades (76 kg) won silver, and Helen Maroulis (57 kg) won bronze. It was the most gold medals for a U.S. women’s team and tied the 2020 team for the most medals. 

USA Wrestling’s women’s national team coach Terry Steiner insists that his team is gaining ground and will take over the world. He points to the explosive growth of girls’ high school wrestling and record-breaking participation as reasons. Steiner also says that our next women’s freestyle superstar or Olympian might be someone we’ve never heard of — a testament to the grassroots work in the United States. 

“We have work to do, but I believe that there will come a day when we take over but Japan isn’t going to fall down,” Steiner said. “We’re going to have to climb over them. I think we’re closing that gap but we still have work to do. There’s no place to rest right now. They aren’t resting. They’re moving forward and they have a lot of young people on their team, as well.”

Here are five questions that need to be answered for a U.S. women’s takeover to happen.

What Will It Take For The United States To Upend Japan At The Worlds And Olympics?

Gold. Lots of gold. And lots of medals. 

Japan had an average of two more medals and two and a half more golds than the United States over the past four years with a 47.75-point average margin of victory. Team USA will need a Japan-like performance to win.

Or, the United States needs to take advantage of a slight letdown. Team USA had three gold medals to Japan’s one at the 2019 World Championships but Japan had six total medals to the United States’ three. 

Head-To-Head: USA vs Japan

Japan doubled the United States’ gold medal output at the 2024 Olympics, 4-2.

Kennedy Blades fell to Japan’s Yuka Kagami, 3-1, in the 76 kg gold medal finals but a second-period takedown would have given Blades the win. The gold medal count would have been tied, 3-3, had she won. 

Former Campbellsville University star Grace Bullen of Norway was up 7-2 against Japan’s Sakurai Motoki during their semifinal match before Motoki secured a late fall and a spot in the gold medal finals (which she won). 

Kayla Miracle lost 6-6 on criteria in the quarterfinals to Kyrgyzstan's Aisuluu Tynybekova. The team score is much closer if those turning point moments go the other way. 

Ask Steiner about coming through in the clutch. The former University of Iowa star won his 1993 NCAA tournament finals with a last-second takedown. It takes a complete match to win titles. 

How Will The United States Compete With Japan’s Depth?

Japan is five to six deep in most weight classes, giving the team an advantage over every country. 

Take 53 kilograms. Akari Fujinami, 20, won the 2024 Olympics and World titles in 2021 and 2023. Behind her is three-time World champion Haruna Okuno, 25, and four-time World and Olympic champion Mayu Mukaida, 27. Neither are good enough to make the team. 

Japan has World champions as backups at several weights. 

The United States has the best depth in the world at 76 kilograms, possibly 72 kg if several stars stay down after the World Team Trials. Age-level success also predicts how the United States will perform at the senior level. 

It will take a deep national team at 10 weights for a complete takeover.

What Does A Takeover Mean?

A takeover means that the United States is the consistent and dominant women’s freestyle power. And it's not just Japan the United States needs to think about. Russia and Belarus weren't at the Olympics and India is in turmoil. Mongolia, China, and Ukraine are down and will likely have formidable line-ups in future years. This was a top-heavy Olympics with the United States and Japan securing all the gold medals. 

How Long Will It Take To Take Over?

There’s no timetable. Development takes time, investment, and consistency. There’s no magic formula, either. Defending a leg lace and stopping a shot takes thousands of hours of repetition. Wishful thinking has no bearing on results. 

Will The Proliferation Of Flag Football Affect The Growth Of Women’s Wrestling In The United States?

It’s hard to say. Flag football will be an Olympic sport and the NFL is behind it. The two sports might go hand-in-hand and help each other since they are different seasons. It could be a good thing if packaged correctly. 

Several potentially great wrestlers have picked football over wrestling so it’s hard to know how this will play out. Women's flag football isn't a Division I sport yet but it should be in the coming years. That could play a factor if an athlete picks between a flag football and a wrestling scholarship. 

Women’s wrestling is a national sport in Japan so there is every reason to believe that the country will continue to invest in its success. Football is America's sport and the NFL is investing in flag football's success.