The best college wrestling rivalry gets one more season and possibly three more rounds. NCAA champions Keegan O’Toole (Missouri) and David Carr (Iowa State) seem destined to reach the 2024 NCAA tournament finals following a thrilling three-match series over the span of a month in 2023. 

Carr struck first with a 7-2 win during a dual on February 15 then struck again with a sudden victory fall in the Big 12 finals on March 4. O’Toole turned the tables with an 8-2 win in the NCAA finals on March 16 for his second title in as many years.

Rounds four, five, and six could happen on February 25 (dual in Ames), March 9-10 (Big 12 Championships in Tulsa), and March 21-23 (NCAA Championships in Kansas City). Each has only suffered defeat three times during their respective college careers, but that number will inevitably go up this season when they face off. 

This is the series to watch, and anyone other than Carr and O’Toole in the national finals will represent a big upset. 

Michigan’s Cam Amine has the best credentials of the remaining field but he’s lost three straight times to O’Toole over three NCAA Championships. Wisconsin’s Dean Hamiti is a two-time All-American who offers challenges because of his long frame and unique style. 

Iowa’s Michael Caliendo and Oklahoma State’s Izzak Olejnik are storylines to follow after transferring from North Dakota State and Northern Illinois, respectively. They met in the seventh-place match at the 2023 NCAA Championships and will likely meet in a historically contentious rivalry between the two most successful college wrestling programs. 

Penn State’s Mitchell Mesenbrink is the wild card here. There’s no telling if he’ll be in the line-up or what weight he’ll go, but Mesenbrink will be a factor if he’s in the line-up at 165. The Hartland, Wisconsin, native won the 2023 U20 World Championships following a silver medal performance in 2022. 

2023 NCAA Championships
1. Keegan O’Toole (Missouri)
2. David Carr (Iowa State)
3. Quincy Monday (Princeton)
4. Cameron Amine (Michigan)
5. Shane Griffith (Stanford)
6. Dean Hamiti (Wisconsin)
7. Michael Caliendo (North Dakota State)
8. Izzak Olejnik (Northern Illinois)

Returning 2023 All-Americans
Keegan O’Toole (Missouri) — 1st
David Carr (Iowa State) — 2nd
Cameron Amine (Michigan) — 4th
Dean Hamiti (Wisconsin) — 6th
Michael Caliendo (Iowa) — 7th
Izzak Olejnik (Oklahoma State) — 8th

Past All-Americans
Peyton Hall (West Virginia) — 8th in 2022

Key Departures
Quincy Monday (Princeton), graduated
Shane Griffith (Penn State), moving up to 174
Carson Kharchla (Ohio State), moving up to 174
Wyatt Sheets (Oklahoma State), graduated

Returning From Redshirt
Hunter Garvin (Stanford)
Antrell Taylor (Nebraska)
Bryce Hepner (Ohio State)
Cole McComas (Rider)
Nick Hamilton (Virginia)
Nick Fea (North Carolina)
Aiden Riggins (Iowa)
Mitchell Mesenbrink (Penn State)

The Favorites: Keegan O’Toole (Missouri) and David Carr (Iowa State)

As outlined above, Carr and O’Toole are in their own class. Each is an NCAA champion and U20 World champion and both met for the first time in college when Carr moved up from 157 pounds. Below is a breakdown of their NCAA tournament and World credentials. 

Keegan O’Toole
— 3rd at the 2021 NCAA Championships (165 pounds)
— 1st at the 2022 NCAA Championships (165 pounds)
— 1st at the 2022 NCAA Championships (165 pounds)
— 1st at the 2021 Junior World Championships (74 kg)

David Carr
— 1st at the 2021 NCAA Championships (157 pounds)
— 3rd at the 2022 NCAA Championships (157 pounds)
— 2nd at the 2023 NCAA Championships (165 pounds)
— 11th at the 2023 U23 World Championships (74 kg)
— 1st at the 2019 Junior World Championships (74 kg)
— 3rd at the 2016 Cadet World Championships (69 kg)

It’s splitting hairs over who will take the title. Both have a proven track record and both have bragging rights. Carr is 2-1 over O’Toole but O’Toole won the NCAA Championships. It’s a coin flip at this point — especially at the beginning of the season. 

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Watch Keegan O'Toole and David Carr face off in the finals of the 2023 NCAA Championships

Title Contenders

Mitchell Mesenbrink (Penn State)
Cameron Amine (Michigan)
Dean Hamiti (Wisconsin)

There’s no telling if Mesenbrink will be in the line-up at 165 for Penn State. He could take an Olympic redshirt and there’s no guarantee that Alex Facundo — last season’s starter — won’t be in the line-up again. However, Mesenbrink has a championship pedigree, and his recent U20 World title proves he can compete with the elite. If he is in the lineup, Mesenbrink will be a contender.

Amine and Hamiti are the next in line. Amine is 3-0 over Hamiti during their college careers but match-ups at the NCAA Championships make it difficult to predict final placings. Hamiti is a highly entertaining wrestler, so be sure to watch him all season. 

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Watch Mitchell Mesenbrink's finals match at this year's U20 World Championships

Best Of The Rest

Michael Caliendo (Iowa)
Izzak Olejnik (Oklahoma State)
Peyton Hall (West Virginia)
Julian Ramirez (Cornell)
Caleb Fish (Michigan State)

Caliendo, Olejnik, and Hall have reached the podium at the NCAA tournament and will determine the pecking order of this weight. Caliendo and Olejnik are at new colleges, so it will be interesting to see how they perform in their new programs. Ramirez, a 2023 U23 national freestyle champion, has reached the Round of 12 each of the past two seasons and Fish defeated Ramirez in the first round of the NCAA tournament on his way to the blood round. 

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Julian Ramirez won the third match of his best-of-three series to take a U23 national title

Sleepers And Dark Horses

Patrick Kennedy (Iowa)
Alex Facundo (Penn State)
Matthew Olguin (Oregon State)

Kennedy and Facundo might not make the line-up, but they shouldn’t be overlooked. Kennedy was seeded sixth at the 2023 NCAA Championships and Facundo was 13th. Each will determine his own fate as the season begins. Don’t be surprised if either or both see the starting line-up. 

Olguin is a two-time national qualifier who lost eight times last season but faced several of the top names. He went 1-2 at the NCAA Championships but his losses were close. 

Pre-season 165-pound Predictions

The field is giving chase to O’Toole and Carr. Mesenbrink might be there with them but it’s uncertain what he will do, which is why he isn’t listed in the below predictions. 

Full 165-pound predictions
1. Keegan O’Toole (Missouri)
2. David Carr (Iowa State)
3. Cameron Amine (Michigan)
4. Michael Caliendo (Iowa)
5. Dean Hamiti (Wisconsin)
6. Julian Ramirez (Cornell)
7. Izzak Olejnik (Oklahoma State)
8. Caleb Fish (Michigan State)